But yeah, basically, some money went over to Two Phil's yesterday. Is that part of the 'Mattress Mack Effect'?īluegrass Wise Man: Hard to say what Mattress Mack is gonna wreck, or when, exactly, but he does it every year and last year lost spectacularly, so it's best not to pay it too much mind. Some money's migrating over to Two Phil's. In Florida, Forte didn't even look like he was going to do anything better than show until the last hundred or so yards. Traffic is the only danger out there for Forte today, but he's got Irad, who’s one of the best in the world. Irad will be looking for the clearest path possible, and perhaps go a little further, in order to not get stopped. Everybody wants to save ground but the bigger thing is to not get stopped in traffic. You have 660 yards from the 3/8th pole, each furlong is 220 yards. Irad mentioned the three-eighths pole in Florida. Forte showed up in Florida ready to rumble and won by a length despite the traffic. Like five lanes.īottom line, was Florida a decisive win or not? Because as we noted, some folks are playing that win down.īluegrass Wise Man: And that is a big mistake.
Ortiz did just that taking him wide in the Florida, no?īluegrass Wise Man: I can’t remember the figure Todd (Trainer Todd Pletcher) mentioned in passing after the race, but I think he said Forte probably ran a sixteenth-of-a-mile more than everybody else because Irad had to take him out so wide. He simply would prefer to not be near the front and take his time and then make the one big run. Forte likes to be behind horses and get relaxed. This is not the kind of thing that you should want to change, and it is the kind of characteristic that you probably couldn’t change even if you tried. That is Irad’s job to not get him stopped. The Derby's fields are huge and there is always traffic. That means, if he gets in traffic in a big field and has to stop and re-accelerate, that could be difficult as it will slow momentum. It's his character.īluegrass Wise Man: There are advantages and disadvantages to that style. What Forte does on the track that counts more, so, with all dispatch, we present the Bluegrass Wise Man. The jury is very much out on that theory, since a massive depression of the odds on any favorite can drive players away from that athlete to his competition. His theory is that his betting style allows other players to enter the market on other horses, which become more or less overlays as the odds leader is (gradually) freighted with cash, so that the tote bears a semblance of normalcy. We won’t know until later in the afternoon at Churchill what he's actually done.īut! As in the last few years, Mattress Mack's style of laying down his million-plus on the favorite over 48 hours of the Oaks and the Derby is an attempt not to depress, in today's case, Forte’s odds too suddenly or completely, thus not destroying his payout, (should there be one). If he holds to form and parses his customary $2-million-or-so in little bundles out over the course of the meeting's two days, the lovably outrageous Mississippi-born Texas owner and furniture-store magnate, Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale will have begun yesterday to dole out his traditional gargantuan play-on-the-nose of Forte, the hands-down favorite.
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